Biodiversity Credit Market

A World Economic Forum's report (Biodiversity Credits: Demand Analysis and Market Outlook) outlines three demand scenarios for the biodiversity credit market, each with increasing levels of ambition and potential impact on market growth and the way society values biodiversity. These scenarios are designed to illustrate the potential scale of demand according to different critical market developments:

1. Limited Development: This scenario represents a conservative estimate of market growth, where only companies with pre-existing nature targets in 2023 participate in the biodiversity credit markets by 2030. It predicts limited adoption of nature targets and uses of biodiversity credits primarily in niche, sustainability-oriented products and brands, with minimal impact on reducing biodiversity loss. Demand for biodiversity credits could reach $1 billion per year by 2030 and $6 billion by 2050 under this scenario.

2. Effective Development: This scenario is more optimistic, drawing parallels from the growth of the voluntary carbon market. It envisages a steady adoption of nature targets supported by clear guidance on the use of biodiversity credits. This scenario anticipates widespread use of biodiversity credits across various consumer product categories and an increasing role in achieving national or global environmental goals. Demand for biodiversity credits could reach $2 billion per year by 2030 and $69 billion by 2050 under this scenario.

3. Transformational Development: The most ambitious scenario imagines a radical shift in how society values biodiversity, with a significant acceleration in the adoption of nature targets and scalable models for biodiversity credit use. This scenario predicts near-universal adoption of nature targets among large companies, driven by strong consumer preferences, mission-driven corporate leadership, and bold public policies. Under this scenario, demand could surge to $7 billion per year by 2030 and $180 billion annually by 2050.

Each scenario is detailed in terms of how biodiversity credit use cases could develop, from limited to widespread adoption across various sectors and use cases. The transformational scenario, in particular, highlights the potential for a significant market shift if there's a collective push towards valuing and actively contributing to biodiversity conservation.